A stochastic methodology for risk assessment of a large earthquake when a long time has elapsed     

Raúl?Fierro  Víctor?LeivaEmail author 《Stochastic Environmental Research and Risk Assessment (SERRA)》2017,31(9):2327-2336

We propose a stochastic methodology for risk assessment of a large earthquake when a long time has elapsed from the last large seismic event. We state an approximate probability distribution for the occurrence time of the next large earthquake, by knowing that the last large seismic event occurred a long time ago. We prove that, under reasonable conditions, such a distribution is exponential with a rate depending on the asymptotic slope of the cumulative intensity function corresponding to a nonhomogeneous Poisson process. As it is not possible to obtain an empirical cumulative distribution function of the waiting time for the next large earthquake, an estimator of its cumulative distribution function based on existing data is derived. We conduct a simulation study for detecting scenario in which the proposed methodology would perform well. Finally, a real-world data analysis is carried out to illustrate its potential applications, including a homogeneity test for the times between earthquakes.  相似文献   

Reproduction of secondary data in projection pursuit transformation     

John?G.?ManchukEmail author  Ryan?M.?Barnett  Clayton?V.?Deutsch 《Stochastic Environmental Research and Risk Assessment (SERRA)》2017,31(10):2585-2605

A challenge when working with multivariate data in a geostatistical context is that the data are rarely Gaussian. Multivariate distributions may include nonlinear features, clustering, long tails, functional boundaries, spikes, and heteroskedasticity. Multivariate transformations account for such features so that they are reproduced in geostatistical models. Projection pursuit as developed for high dimensional data exploration can also be used to transform a multivariate distribution into a multivariate Gaussian distribution with an identity covariance matrix. Its application within a geostatistical modeling context is called the projection pursuit multivariate transform (PPMT). An approach to incorporate exhaustive secondary variables in the PPMT is introduced. With this approach the PPMT can incorporate any number of secondary variables with any number of primary variables. A necessary alteration to the approach to make this numerically practical was the implementation of a continuous probability estimator that relies on Bernstein polynomials for the transformation that takes place in the projections. Stopping criteria were updated to incorporate a bootstrap t test that compares data sampled from a multivariate Gaussian distribution with the data undergoing transformation.  相似文献   

Extreme floods and their relationship with tropical cyclones in Puerto Rico     

José J. Hernández Ayala  David Keellings  Peter R. Waylen  Corene J. Matyas 《水文科学杂志》2017,62(13):2103-2119

An extreme value analysis (EVA) point process approach has been implemented to examine the flood characteristics of Puerto Rico when tropical cyclones (TCs) are present in the discharge series and when they are removed from it. Mean daily discharge values that exceeded the 99th percentile thresholds were used in both the TC and non-TC data series. In nine of the 12 stations the maximum discharge was associated with a TC, with hurricanes Hortense (1996), Georges (1998) and Eloise (1975) responsible for most of the maximum peaks at each site. Percentage changes in the generalized extreme value parameters, which include location (central tendency), scale (variance) and shape (skewness), between the TC and non-TC data exhibited a decrease in the majority of stations. Stations in the eastern interior and central region of the island showed the largest decrease in all parameters, in flood occurrences and in return periods when TCs were removed from the series.  相似文献   

The droughts of 1996–1997 and 2004–2005 in Amazonia: hydrological response in the river main‐stem     

Javier Tomasella  Laura S. Borma  José A. Marengo  Daniel A. Rodriguez  Luz A. Cuartas  Carlos A. Nobre  Maria C. R. Prado 《水文研究》2011,25(8):1228-1242

Severe hydrological droughts in the Amazon have generally been associated with strong El Niño events. More than 100 years of stage record at Manaus harbour confirms that minimum water levels generally coincide with intense warming in the tropical Pacific sea waters. During 2005, however, the Amazon experienced a severe drought which was not associated with an El Niño event. Unless what usually occurs during strong El Niño events, when negative rainfall anomalies usually affect central and eastern Amazon drainage basin; rainfall deficiencies in the drought of 2005 were spatially constrained to the west and southwest of the basin. In spite of this, discharge stations at the main‐stem recorded minimum water levels as low as those observed during the basin‐wide 1996–1997 El Niño‐related drought. The analysis of river discharges along the main‐stem and major tributaries during the drought of 2004–2005 revealed that the recession on major tributaries began almost simultaneously. This was not the case in the 1996–1997 drought, when above‐normal contribution of some tributaries for a short period during high water was crucial to partially counterbalance high discharge deficits of the other tributaries. Since time‐lagged contributions of major tributaries are fundamental to damp the extremes in the main‐stem, an almost coincident recession in almost all tributaries caused a rapid decrease in water discharges during the 2005 event. Copyright © 2010 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.  相似文献   

Generalized plasticity state parameter‐based model for saturated and unsaturated soils. Part 1: Saturated state     

Diego Manzanal  José Antonio Fernández Merodo  Manuel Pastor 《国际地质力学数值与分析法杂志》2011,35(12):1347-1362

The behavior of granular materials is known to depend on its loose or dense nature, which in turns depends both on density and confining pressure. Many models developed in the past require the use of different sets of constitutive parameters for the same material under different confining pressures. The purpose of this paper is to extend a basic generalized plasticity model for sands proposed by Pastor, Zienkiewicz and Chan by modifying the main ingredients of the model flow—rule, loading–unloading discriminating direction and plastic modulus—to include a dependency on the state parameter. The proposed model is tested against the available experimental data on three different sands, using for each of them a single set of material parameters, finding a reasonably good agreement between experiments and predictions. Copyright © 2010 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.  相似文献   

Importance of mixotrophic nanoplankton in Aysén Fjord (Southern Chile) during austral winter     

Till Czypionka  Cristian A. Vargas  Nelson Silva  Giovanni Daneri  Humberto E. González  José Luis Iriarte 《Continental Shelf Research》2011,31(3-4):216-224

Mixotrophy, the combination of autotrophic and heterotrophic nutrition in the same organism, is widespread in planktonic algae. Several reports from temperate and high-latitude fjords in Scandinavia suggest the occurrence of a niche in late summer and autumn during post-bloom conditions in which mixotrophic algae can become important grazers in pelagic ecosystems, accessing the nutrients bound in their prey to overcome nutrient limitation. Here, we experimentally determined the trophic modes and bacterivory rates for the nanoplankton community (2–20 μm) in Aysén Fjord located in the Chilean Northern Patagonia during two contrasting seasons: winter and spring. While mixotrophic nanoplankton was virtually absent from the system in spring, in winter at occasions it even constituted the dominant trophic group of the nanoplankton with abundances of >900 cells mL^?1. This indicates a second niche for mixotrophs in winter, when mixotrophy allows overcoming light limitation.  相似文献   

Latitudinal patterns of export production recorded in surface sediments of the Chilean Patagonian fjords (41–55°S) as a response to water column productivity     

Claudia Aracena  Carina B. Lange  José Luis Iriarte  Lorena Rebolledo  Silvio Pantoja 《Continental Shelf Research》2011,31(3-4):340-355

The Chilean Patagonian fjords region (41–56°S) is characterized by highly complex geomorphology and hydrographic conditions, and strong seasonal and latitudinal patterns in precipitation, freshwater discharge, glacier coverage, and light regime; all of these directly affect biological production in the water column. In this study, we compiled published and new information on water column properties (primary production, nutrients) and surface sediment characteristics (biogenic opal, organic carbon, molar C/N, bulk sedimentary δ¹³C_org) from the Chilean Patagonian fjords between 41°S and 55°S, describing herein the latitudinal pattern of water column productivity and its imprint in the underlying sediments. Based on information collected at 188 water column and 118 sediment sampling sites, we grouped the Chilean fjords into four main zones: Inner Sea of Chiloé (41° to ～44°S), Northern Patagonia (44° to ～47°S), Central Patagonia (48–51°S), and Southern Patagonia (Magellan Strait region between 52° and 55°S). Primary production in the Chilean Patagonian fjords was the highest in spring–summer, reflecting the seasonal pattern of water column productivity. A clear north–south latitudinal pattern in primary production was observed, with the highest average spring and summer estimates in the Inner Sea of Chiloé (2427 and 5860 mg C m^?2 d^?1) and Northern Patagonia (1667 and 2616 mg C m^?2 d^?1). This pattern was closely related to the higher availability of nutrients, greater solar radiation, and extended photoperiod during the productive season in these two zones. The lowest spring value was found in Caleta Tortel, Central Patagonia (91 mg C m^?2 d^?1), a site heavily influenced by glacier meltwater and river discharge loaded with glacial sediments. Biogenic opal, an important constituent of the Chilean fjord surface sediments (Si_OPAL ～1–13%), reproduced the general north–south pattern of primary production and was directly related to water column silicic acid concentrations. Surface sediments were also rich in organic carbon content and the highest values corresponded to locations far away from glacier influence, sites within fjords, and/or semi-enclosed and protected basins, reflecting both autochthonous (water column productivity) and allochthonous sources (contribution of terrestrial organic matter from fluvial input to the fjords). A gradient was observed from the more oceanic sites to the fjord heads (west–east) in terms of bulk sedimentary δ¹³C_org and C/N ratios; the more depleted (δ¹³C_org ?26‰) and higher C/N (23) values corresponded to areas close to rivers and glaciers. A comparison of the Chilean Patagonian fjords with other fjord systems in the world revealed high variability in primary production for all fjord systems as well as similar surface sediment geochemistry due to the mixing of marine and terrestrial organic carbon.  相似文献   

Plio-Pleistocene mammals from Mille-Logya,Ethiopia, and the post-Hadar faunal change     

Denis Geraads  Denne Reed  W. Andrew Barr  René Bobe  Peter Stamos  Zeresenay Alemseged 《第四纪科学杂志》2021,36(6):1073-1089

We describe the non-primate mammalian fauna from the late Pliocene to earliest Pleistocene deposits of Mille-Logya in the Lower Awash Valley, Ethiopia, dated to c. 2.9–2.4 Ma, and divided into three successive units: Gafura, Seraitu, and Uraitele. We identify 41 mammalian taxa (including rodents), the most diverse group being the Bovidae, with 17 taxa. While the Gafura assemblage still resembles those from the earlier Hadar Formation, the younger Seraitu assemblage documents a major turnover. While there is little change in the species present across this interval, the relative abundances of various taxa change dramatically, with suids being largely replaced by open-country bovids (Alcelaphini and Antilopini). We interpret this faunal change as reflective of an environmental shift, contemporaneous with the replacement of Australopithecus afarensis by Homo in the area.  相似文献   

Granular element method for three‐dimensional discrete element calculations     

Keng‐Wit Lim  José E. Andrade 《国际地质力学数值与分析法杂志》2014,38(2):167-188

This paper endows the recently‐proposed granular element method (GEM) with the ability to perform 3D discrete element calculations. By using non‐uniform rational B‐Splines to accurately represent complex grain geometries, we proposed an alternative approach to clustering‐based and polyhedra‐based discrete element methods whereby the need for complicated and ad hoc approaches to construct 3D grain geometries is entirely bypassed. We demonstrate the ability of GEM in capturing arbitrary‐shaped 3D grains with great ease, flexibility, and without excessive geometric information. Furthermore, the applicability of GEM is enhanced by its tight integration with existing non‐uniform rational B‐Splines modeling tools and ability to provide a seamless transition from binary images of real grain shapes (e.g., from 3D X‐ray CT) to modeling and discrete mechanics computations.Copyright © 2013 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.  相似文献   

Tectonometamorphic evolution of the Atbashi high‐P units (Kyrgyz CAOB,Tien Shan): Implications for the closure of the Turkestan Ocean and continental subduction–exhumation of the South Kazakh continental margin          下载免费PDF全文

Chloé Loury  Yann Rolland  Stéphane Guillot  Pierre Lanari  Clément Ganino  Raphael Melis  Anthony Jourdon  Carole Petit  Olivier Beyssac  Sylvain Gallet  Patrick Monié 《Journal of Metamorphic Geology》2018,36(8):959-985

The South Tien Shan (STS) belt results from the last collision event in the western Central Asian Orogenic Belt (CAOB). Understanding its formation is of prime importance in the general framework of the CAOB. The Atbashi Range preserves high‐P (HP) rocks along the STS suture, but still, its global metamorphic evolution remains poorly constrained. Several HP units have been identified: (a) a HP tectonic mélange including boudins of mafic eclogites in a sedimentary matrix, (b) a large (>100 km long) high‐P metasedimentary unit (HPMU) and (c) a lower blueschist facies accretionary prism. Raman Spectroscopy on carbonaceous material combined with phengite and chlorite multiequilibria and isochemical phase diagram modelling indicates that the HPMU recorded homogeneous P–T conditions of 23–25 kbar and 560–570°C along the whole unit. ⁴⁰Ar/³⁹Ar dating on phengite from the HPMU ranges between 328 and 319 Ma at regional scale. These ages are interpreted as (re‐) crystallization ages of phengite during T_max conditions at a pressure range of 20–25 kbar. Thermobarometry on samples from the HP tectonic mélange provides similar metamorphic peak conditions. Thermobarometry on the blueschist to lower greenschist facies accretionary prism indicates that it underwent P–T conditions of 5–6 kbar and 290–340°C, highlighting a 17–20 kbar pressure gap between the HPMU‐tectonic mélange units and the accretionary prism. Comparison with available geochronological data suggests a very short time span between the prograde path (340 Ma), HP metamorphic peak (330 Ma), the T_max (328–319 Ma) and the final exhumation of the HPMU (303–295 Ma). Extrusion of the HPMU, accommodated by a basal thrust and an upper detachment, was driven by buoyant forces from 70–75 km up to 60 km depth, which directly followed continental subduction and detachment of the HPMU. At crustal depths, extrusion was controlled by collisional tectonics up to shallow levels. Lithological homogeneity of the HPMU and its continental‐derived character from the North Tien Shan suggest this unit corresponds to the hyper‐extended continental margin of the Kazakh continent, subducted southward below the north continental active margin of the Tarim craton. Integration of the available geological data allows us to propose a general geodynamic scenario for Tien Shan during the Carboniferous with a combination of (a) N‐dipping subduction below the Kazakh margin of Middle Tien Shan until 390–340 Ma and (b) S‐dipping subduction of remaining Turkestan marginal basins between 340 and 320 Ma.  相似文献